The Choice Between To Double Or To Go For Gammon

Here is a common situation that most of us have been: it's rather early in the game and it seems that everything is going pretty well. We have a very nice position in the game and if all goes as we planned we might win a gammon.

Despite the good position and all, there is only one problem, we haven't tried doubling yet and the doubling cube is located in the middle. The fact that we haven't doubled yet, and we win a gammon we will only get 2 points.

But on the contrary if we try to offer the double, our opponent will probably drop and you will only get one point. And then of course, if we don't double and just keep on playing aiming for the gammon, there is a possibility that something might go wrong and we'll end up losing the game when the we could have at least ended with the cube.

In this situation what shall we do?

Here is the simple answer: it depends on position and on score. In playing for the real money games the general rule is that players should play for gammon if their odds of winning a gammon game are twice as high as their odds of losing the game.

In the above situation, the first thing that we should do is to at least estimate our odds of winning a gammon game and our odds of losing it as well. Even the experts in the world of calculating statistics and estimates, can sometimes get too involved with complicated calculations and not follow the mathematics and follow emotion. This is dangerous. One should always play the odds and not follow feelings.

But then again, we should try our very best and if we know that we will win the game, let us say about 4 to 1 odds or around 25%, but we will lose the gammon with only 1 out of 10 or at around 10%, then we are faced with a simple decision which is to go for the gammon.

On the other hand, if we are not sure with our situation and we can't make a good guess then we say that we must go ahead and double. If it a lot better to make a mistake, if there is to make one, by doing double and just go and take the one point risking losing two or possibly giving your opponent one.

Remember that our opponent can make mistake too and accept the double, and this is quite a good thing. Yes, there are times that we will lose and it will oftentimes backfire, but the game of backgammon is all about winning and losing odds and about long term statistics.